TL;DR
The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median euro area inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 3.1%, while expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged. Respondents also anticipated weaker economic growth and higher unemployment, alongside increased expected income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that euro area consumers’ median inflation expectation for the next 12 months edged up to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while expectations for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment rose. The results offer a monthly view of household views on prices, jobs, income, housing and credit, which the ECB uses alongside other data for policy analysis.
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Consumers’ median perception of inflation over the previous 12 months also increased slightly, reaching 3.6% from 3.5%. Longer-term median expectations did not change: respondents expected inflation of 2.9% in three years and 2.5% in five years. The ECB said uncertainty around one-year inflation expectations increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.1% from 1.0%, while expected nominal spending growth increased to 3.7% from 3.6%. Perceived spending growth over the previous 12 months was 5.3%, up from 5.2% in August. These are respondents’ reported expectations and perceptions, not forecasts issued by the ECB.
The outlook for activity and employment moved in a less positive direction. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Consumers perceived the current unemployment rate at 10.6%, a reading the ECB said suggests they expect only a slight increase from that perceived level.
Housing price expectations increased: consumers anticipated a 3.5% rise in home prices over the next year, compared with 3.4% in August. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%. The ECB also reported that the net share of households saying credit access had tightened over the previous year increased, as did the net share expecting tighter access over the coming year.
Households See Price and Jobs Pressure
The survey presents a mixed picture for households and policymakers. Near-term inflation expectations edged higher, while longer-term medians held steady, and consumers expected lower growth and a higher unemployment rate. Such views matter because they help the ECB assess how households perceive the economy, although survey responses do not establish what inflation, growth or employment will actually be.
The income differences reported by the ECB also show that expectations vary across households. Respondents in the lowest income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the highest quintile. They also expected a higher unemployment rate and mortgage rate, while anticipating faster home-price growth. These disparities can help policymakers track how economic pressures are experienced across income groups.
Credit expectations add another household-finance signal: more respondents, on balance, reported tighter access over the previous year and expected tighter conditions ahead. The release does not quantify individual lending outcomes, but the change is relevant alongside views on spending, income and housing costs.
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How the ECB Survey Works
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. Its results complement other data sources used by the ECB for policy analysis. The ECB cautions that the findings do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
The September survey’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026. Unless otherwise stated, the release’s statistics refer to a 2% winsorised mean, a method described in the ECB’s guide to computing aggregate statistics. The published figures include medians for inflation measures and specified aggregate results for other topics. The distinction matters: the release combines different statistical measures, and its consumer expectations should not be read as official ECB forecasts.
The ECB makes underlying microdata available through the survey’s data and methodological information section. It also publishes monthly aggregate results for individual countries and the euro area on its Data Portal and website.
““Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly, remaining higher than the level prior to the start of the conflict in the Middle East.””
— European Central Bank
Survey Expectations Are Not Outcomes
The release records what surveyed consumers think, not what will necessarily happen. It does not establish whether inflation will rise further, whether the economy will contract by the amount respondents anticipate, or whether unemployment and mortgage rates will reach the expected levels. The ECB also did not attribute the small month-to-month movements to a specific cause.
Although the release says one-year inflation uncertainty remained above its level before the Middle East conflict, it gives no numerical size for that gap in the summary provided. It also reports changes in net credit-access responses without stating the underlying percentages in this release. The figures therefore show direction, but do not on their own explain the scale of those changes or what households will experience in practice.
The survey covers adults in 11 euro area countries, rather than every household in the currency area. The release does not provide enough information to treat the results as a complete measure of consumer views across all euro area residents.
October Results Due in November
The ECB has scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. The next release will show whether the September changes in short-term inflation, growth, unemployment, housing and credit expectations continued or reversed.
Until then, readers can consult the September country-level and euro area results through the ECB Data Portal, along with the survey’s methodological material and microdata. The ECB is expected to use the survey as one input among multiple sources in its continuing policy analysis; the release does not announce a policy decision or a change in the central bank’s outlook.
Key Questions
What did the ECB’s September 2026 survey report about inflation expectations?
The median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. The three-year expectation stayed at 2.9%, and the five-year expectation stayed at 2.5%.
Did respondents expect the euro area economy to improve?
No. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months declined to -1.5% from -1.2% in August. This is a survey measure of consumer expectations, not an ECB forecast or a confirmed economic outcome.
What did consumers expect for unemployment?
The expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.3% from 11.0%. The ECB said respondents’ perceived current rate was 10.6%, suggesting they expected only a slight rise from that perceived level.
When will the next survey results be released?
The ECB scheduled publication of its October 2026 results for 27 November 2026.
Who took part in the Consumer Expectations Survey?
The monthly online survey covers around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries. The ECB says the results complement other sources used for policy analysis and do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
Source: primary
