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U.S. factory employment reached a record 19.6 million in June 1979 and stood at a preliminary 12.7 million in October 2026. Manufacturing output was about 1.95 times its 1979 level in September 2026, though it remained roughly 9% below its 2007 peak. The decline began well before China joined the World Trade Organization, while economists estimate Chinese import competition accounted for up to about one million of nearly six million U.S. factory jobs lost from 1999 to 2011.
A report published November 8 says U.S. factory employment fell to a preliminary 12.7 million in October 2026, down about 35% from its June 1979 record of 19.6 million, even as manufacturing output reached nearly twice its 1979 level in September. The figures show how factory production and factory payrolls have moved in different directions over decades.
The employment figures come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics series, which counts payroll jobs at employers outside farming. It does not include self-employed workers or people employed in private households. The series begins in January 1939, when manufacturing had about 9.1 million jobs, or 30.3% of nonfarm payroll employment.
Factory employment’s share of payroll jobs peaked much earlier than its total count. In November 1943, manufacturing accounted for 38.8% of payroll jobs, or 16.6 million positions. The total number later rose to 19,553,000 in June 1979, while manufacturing’s share had fallen to 21.7%. By October 2026, the preliminary count represented 8.0% of payroll jobs.
The decline included a particularly steep period from January 2000 to February 2010, when employment fell from 17.3 million to 11.4 million, a loss of almost six million jobs. It later recovered somewhat, dropped during the 2020 pandemic shock and reached 12.7 million in October 2026. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s manufacturing industrial production index was at 1.95 times its June 1979 level in September 2026. The report calculates output per factory job at roughly three times its 1979 level, without adjusting for hours worked.
Factory jobs fell as output grew The long shift in U.S. manufacturing
U.S. factories produce far more than in 1979, while employing fewer people. The figures show why payrolls alone do not tell the whole story of manufacturing.
Jobs and output diverged
Employment is down about 35% from its 1979 record, while output is nearly twice its 1979 level.
- Record: 19.6 million in June 1979
- 12.7 million in October 2026, preliminary
- Manufacturing’s payroll share: 8.0%
- About 1.95 times its 1979 level
- Roughly 9% below its 2007 peak
- Output per factory job: roughly 3 times its 1979 level
A long decline, with a sharp drop
The steepest stretch described ran from January 2000 to February 2010.
Factory jobs dropped from 17.3 million to 11.4 million.
Employment later recovered somewhat, then fell during the 2020 pandemic shock.
The U.S. decline began 22 years before China joined the World Trade Organization.
Trade explains part of the losses
The cited estimate attributes some job losses to rising Chinese imports, not the entire decline.
Comparisons have limits
International figures cover industry and construction, broader sectors than U.S. manufacturing payrolls.
A smaller workforce share
Industry and construction employed 49.2% of workers in West Germany in 1965, compared with 22.9% in Germany in 2025.
Industry employment peaked
China’s industry and construction employment peaked at 232 million in 2012.
Fewer Jobs, More Factory Output
The gap between employment and output means that the number of people on factory payrolls alone does not show how much the sector produces. According to the report’s comparison, U.S. manufacturing output grew substantially from 1979 even as its workforce shrank. That distinction matters when assessing claims that the country has simply stopped making goods.
The longer-term figures also show a change in manufacturing’s place in the labor market: from nearly two in five payroll jobs at its 1943 share peak to one in twelve in October 2026. The report says output has not followed a steady upward path, however. It has been flat since its 2007 high and stood about 9% below that peak in September 2026.
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The Long Shift in Factory Work
The report places the U.S. trend alongside figures for Germany and China. West Germany’s industry and construction sector employed 49.2% of workers in 1965; the comparable figure for Germany was 22.9% in 2025. In China, industry and construction employment peaked at 232 million in 2012. These measures cover broader sectors than manufacturing alone, so they are not directly equivalent to the U.S. factory payroll series.
The report also examines the claim that U.S. factory jobs “went to China.” It says the American decline began 22 years before China joined the World Trade Organization. Citing economists’ estimates, it says rising Chinese imports cost up to about one million U.S. factory jobs between 1999 and 2011, out of almost six million lost during that period. The estimate attributes part of the decline to import competition, not all of it.
““the proportion of the working population engaged in secondary industry appears in every country to rise to a maximum and then to begin falling.””
— Colin Clark, economist, quoted in the report
Limits of the Employment Comparison
The October 2026 U.S. employment figure is marked preliminary, and the report does not provide a final revised count. Its output-per-job comparison is an own calculation based on output and employment at selected dates; it does not adjust for hours worked, so it is not a measure of productivity per hour. The material also does not establish how much of the long-term job decline came from technology, trade, or other causes beyond the cited estimate for Chinese import competition.
The German and Chinese figures cover industry and construction rather than manufacturing alone. Their definitions and time periods differ from the U.S. payroll series, limiting direct comparisons. The report does not provide a forecast for future factory employment or output.
Revisions and Output Trends
The October 2026 employment count remains preliminary, so later BLS revisions may change it. The next useful comparisons will be updated payroll figures and manufacturing output data, particularly whether output moves closer to or farther from its 2007 high. The report provides no scheduled milestone or forecast for either measure.
Key Questions
When did U.S. factory employment reach its peak?
The BLS payroll series cited in the report reached 19,553,000 jobs in June 1979, its highest monthly count.
How many U.S. factory jobs were there in October 2026?
The preliminary count was 12.7 million, about 35% below the June 1979 peak.
Did U.S. manufacturing output fall along with factory employment?
No. The report says manufacturing output in September 2026 was about 1.95 times its June 1979 level. It was still roughly 9% below its 2007 high.
How many U.S. factory jobs did Chinese imports account for?
Economists cited by the report estimate that rising Chinese imports cost up to about one million U.S. factory jobs from 1999 to 2011, out of almost six million lost. The estimate does not attribute the entire decline to imports.
Source: Thorsten Meyer AI
