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TL;DR
A Chinese-speaking operator used Cairn, a free, open-source platform for coordinating AI agents, in a campaign that tried more than 1,200 sites and broke into websites associated with more than 100 companies, according to Reuters and NorForge. NorForge estimates the AI costs at about $5,000, or roughly $50 per successful intrusion, while stressing that the cost estimate is uncertain and the amount of data accessed remains unknown.
A Chinese-speaking operator used AI agents to probe online shops and break into websites associated with more than 100 companies, according to an investigation by Reuters and research by security firm NorForge. NorForge estimates the campaign’s AI costs at about $50 per successful intrusion, a figure that illustrates how automation could lower the cost of sustained cyberattacks but is not a confirmed bill or measure of losses.
The campaign began on September 25 and targeted online shops in the United States, Canada, Australia and Japan. By mid-October, the agents had tried more than 1,200 websites, according to records Reuters reviewed and NorForge’s analysis. Reuters identified websites associated with more than 100 companies as compromised by independently reviewing the operator’s Cairn activity. The reports describe website intrusions; they do not establish that every company’s core systems or customer information were accessed.
The operator used Cairn, a free, open-source platform that coordinates AI agents, rather than hiring a team of people, as some headlines have suggested. NorForge researcher Snorre Fagerland found exposed Cairn control panels and observed activity through them. The firm linked more than 20 panels to likely malicious use. Its report, published October 19, grouped the activity into three clusters and counted more than 1,100 attack projects across 14 panels in the largest cluster.
NorForge measured successful projects in that cluster as taking a little under 23 hours from start to goal, with about 140 recorded facts per project. One lasted more than five days. The firm estimated roughly $5,000 in AI costs for the campaign, or around $50 per successful hack, while warning that uncertainty in the estimate is considerable. The figure concerns estimated AI costs, not the total expense of the operation or the financial harm to victims.
One operator, a swarm of agents
The campaign in numbers
What the researcher and Reuters report about the busiest group NorForge found. Counts come from the attackers’ own exposed panels; cost and success figures are estimates.
The price tag estimates
NorForge / Fagerland, “uncertainty considerable”
- ~$5 per task on average, including tasks that fail early
- $100+ for long projects with more than 1,000 intents and facts
- ~$5,000 in AI costs for the campaign, about $50 per successful hack
- ~10% success rate, NorForge’s “reasonable assumption”
How the swarm runs
Simplified, no attack details
- Shop websites are ranked by traffic and checked automatically in a browser
- Each target becomes a Cairn project: a starting point and a goal
- Agents post facts and next steps on a shared board and build on each other
- Goal: a hidden way back in to shop and payment systems, for later
- 22 SepGambit reportGambitCairn found among three AI harnesses on a criminal’s staging server (separate campaign)
- 25 SepCampaign startsReutersA Chinese-speaking operator turns agents on shops in the US, Canada, Australia and Japan
- ≈ 2 OctOpen panels foundReutersFagerland starts finding Cairn panels in malicious use, about two dozen
- mid-Oct1,200+ sites triedReutersBreaks into websites of 100+ companies, incl. Deere, SharkNinja, Cummins
- 19 OctReport and investigationNorForge · ReutersNorForge publishes “Inside Cairn”; Reuters publishes its investigation
Sources: NorForge, Inside Cairn (19 Oct 2026); Reuters (19 Oct 2026); Gambit Security (22 Sep 2026). Numbers as published, same rounding as the article.
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Low-Cost Automation Pressures Defenders
The reported campaign matters because it shows how one operator may use software agents to sustain many concurrent investigations of potential weaknesses. The estimated $50 per successful intrusion is not independently verified, but the broader operational finding is significant: automated probing can continue for hours or days without an attacker manually directing every step. That can make attacks cheaper to repeat and harder to contain through ordinary monitoring alone.
The reports also point defenders toward places that may receive less attention than a company’s main network, including product-support websites, vendor-operated pages and other online services. A breach of a smaller or separate site can still create risks, but the available reporting does not show that all such intrusions exposed sensitive data or provided access to corporate systems.
Large volumes of automated activity may also add pressure to security teams. If agents generate repeated findings and follow-up attempts, staff must distinguish meaningful threats from routine alerts while investigating multiple sites. NorForge’s findings do not quantify that workload or establish that AI agents outperform human attackers in every case. They do show why defenders need to track the identity and permissions of automated agents, as well as the systems those agents can reach.
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Exposed Cairn Panels Revealed Activity
The investigation developed after security firm Gambit Security reported a separate agent-driven campaign in September. Gambit said it recovered a criminal staging server containing three AI-agent tools: Hermes, Strix and Cairn. NorForge then searched for internet-exposed dashboards used to control Cairn. The firm said most such panels require authorization, but Fagerland found some without passwords and was able to observe activity.
NorForge began identifying panels linked to suspected malicious activity around October 2. It published its report on October 19, the same day Reuters published its investigation. NorForge’s report did not name the victims; Reuters said it identified companies by reviewing the operator’s Cairn activity and contacting them. Two smaller businesses acknowledged compromises, while some others did not respond.
Gambit’s September findings concern a separate campaign, not evidence of data theft in the campaign tracked by NorForge and Reuters. Gambit reported that at least 27 companies were compromised and that at least 600,000 card records were taken from two of them. Those figures should not be attributed to the later campaign.
“It is a state-based problem solving engine, moving step by step in the general direction of a defined solution.”
— NorForge, describing Cairn
Data Access and Costs Remain Unclear
The operator’s identity has not been established. NorForge describes the activity as involving a Chinese-speaking actor; that does not confirm who was responsible or where the person was located. The source material reports no arrest or criminal charge.
It is also not clear how much information, if any, was taken from the affected websites. Reuters reported that it could not establish the amount of data accessed. Deere told Reuters it had no indication sensitive information was accessed; SharkNinja said a standalone product-support site was hit and the threat was contained. Cummins said it was investigating a potential attack on a vendor-operated website. These company statements do not resolve what may have happened at every other affected site.
The approximately $50 per intrusion figure is NorForge’s estimate based on estimated AI spending, and the firm says there is considerable uncertainty. The reports do not provide a verified accounting of other operating costs, the attackers’ proceeds, or the total financial impact on the companies.
Company Investigations Continue
Companies that confirmed incidents may continue investigating affected sites, working with vendors and determining whether any information was accessed. The available reporting does not give a shared timetable for those inquiries or identify a later milestone for the campaign. Readers should distinguish confirmed company statements from the broader count of victims Reuters derived from the operator’s activity records.
For security teams, the exposed Cairn panels identified by NorForge are a concrete lead for checking whether agent-control dashboards are reachable without authorization. The reports also support reviewing the security of support and vendor-operated websites. Whether authorities will identify the operator, whether further victim disclosures will follow, and whether the campaign resulted in data theft remain unresolved.
Key Questions
What happened in the reported campaign?
A Chinese-speaking operator used Cairn AI agents to probe online shops in four countries. Reuters and NorForge reported that the activity tried more than 1,200 sites and broke into websites associated with more than 100 companies.
Did the attacker really pay only $50 per break-in?
About $50 is an estimate from NorForge, calculated from its estimate of roughly $5,000 in AI costs for the campaign. The firm said the estimate carries considerable uncertainty, and it is not a measure of the full cost of the operation or any victim’s losses.
Was sensitive customer information stolen?
That has not been established for this campaign. Reuters said it could not determine how much data, if any, was taken. Deere reported no indication that sensitive information was accessed, while other affected companies’ investigations or disclosures may differ.
Who was behind the attacks?
The operator’s identity is unknown. NorForge described a Chinese-speaking actor, which does not identify a person or confirm their location. The supplied reporting does not mention an arrest or charge.
Was Cairn built as a hacking tool?
No, according to its author, who said Cairn was not designed for hacking attacks. NorForge describes it as a general platform for coordinating step-by-step work by AI agents; the reported campaign used it for malicious activity.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
